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Insights & Blogs

From Farrell Financial

Is This a 2020 Bear Market? Thumbnail

Is This a 2020 Bear Market?

With the movement last week, it has been over 5 months since the top and we are just now entering bear territory. Although we do not know what the amount of the decline will ultimately be, we do believe it is prudent to recognize the risk environment that we are in.

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Has Anything Really Changed? Thumbnail

Has Anything Really Changed?

As we head into the next US Federal Reserve meeting on May 3-4, we could ask ourselves if anything has really changed for many stock markets since the previous March meeting regarding their risk levels. US stock markets at that time were looking to break through some critical support levels. You could say, that these support levels ultimately held and we ended up with a nice short -term rally into the end of March. However, many US indexes have now reversed back down, and some risk indicators are at higher levels...

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Both Indicators Moving Below 50% Thumbnail

Both Indicators Moving Below 50%

The global stock markets certainly turned a new page or chapter as we started 2022. It has been a series of lower highs and lower lows for many stock indexes with Toronto’s TSX being one notable exception. Toronto started the year around 21,000 and was as high as 21,700 in February. It ended March 9 at 21,493 – close to where it started the year. It has been a very different dynamic, in many other stock markets due to the central banks focus on higher interest rates and now with the horrific Russian invasion of Ukraine. We would just like it to go away but unfortunately it will not...

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Is the Tide Turning- Part 2 Thumbnail

Is the Tide Turning- Part 2

Last May, we asked if the tide was turning regarding leadership in North American stock markets. We noticed that the relative strength of the largest non-financial Companies on the Nasdaq or the NDX-100 was underperforming the S&P 500 to a level we had not seen for over 20 years.

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Another New High ! Thumbnail

Another New High !

It has certainly been a year of making new highs in the leading US S&P 500 stock index as the market continues to climb the proverbial – Wall of Worry. The S&P 500 hit the record 4,800 on December 29, 2021 which was the 70th new high for the index in 2021 according to CNBC despite ongoing fears throughout much of the year...

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Risk Levels Increase - Again Thumbnail

Risk Levels Increase - Again

As the North American stock markets have made new all- time highs in the last few weeks, we once again see a reversal down in our main indicator that measures the percentage of stocks on a Point & Figure buy signal that trade on the NYSE – BPNYSE. We have seen this indicator move down quite a few times in the last 18 months or so...

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It's that Time of the Year! Thumbnail

It's that Time of the Year!

The North American stock markets took a small time out in September but quickly returned to new highs in October and have continued their upward path in November. November has traditionally been the start of a very good 6-month time period...

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Risk Levels Have Increased Thumbnail

Risk Levels Have Increased

Although many stock indexes have once again reached new highs recently, we do see a few indicators hitting lower lows with the recent stock market movement. Markets are generally stronger when many areas of the market are moving higher rather than only a few areas and that is why we follow so many breadth indicators...

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Is The Tide Turning? Thumbnail

Is The Tide Turning?

We made quite a move up in most global and North American stock markets since last November. As many stock markets make new highs, there has been one index or group of stocks that has had some indigestion issues- the Nasdaq...

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Has Anything Changed? Thumbnail

Has Anything Changed?

Only 8 business days ago, we experienced some deep concern in the markets as many stock markets sold- off and the volatility measurement for the S&P 500, known as the VIX, spiked up to 41 – just below the June high of 44.

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Volatility and Risk Increases – Again Thumbnail

Volatility and Risk Increases – Again

We seem to be still recovering from the inordinate March drawdown which saw the S&P 500 move from 3,390 in February to a low of 2,220 in March. A very dramatic move in a short period of time.

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Sweet October? Thumbnail

Sweet October?

It was a good 3rd quarter for the markets with only 1 down month- September. Now, October has started on the right path, as our main indicator - the Bullish Percent for the NYSE (BPNYSE) - which measures the percentage of stocks that trade on the NYSE that are on a Point & Figure buy signal reversed up from 46% to 54%.

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